Reports & Papers
Report·NDPE

Concession Risk Index — Indonesia, 2025 release.

Methodology, coverage, and field calibration notes. A working reference for buyers, financiers, and policy teams tracking concession-level exposure across Indonesian palm oil.

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Published
May 2026
Length
48 pages
Format
PDF · 6.2 MB
Topic
NDPE
Report
Concession Risk Index — Indonesia, 2025 release.
Abstract

The 2025 release of the Concession Risk Index covers 3,184 active palm oil concessions across Indonesia, scored on a six-factor model spanning deforestation, peat conversion, ownership transparency, grievance history, regulatory alignment, and recovery posture.

This report documents the methodology behind each factor, the calibration runs conducted across Kalimantan and Sumatra during the 2024 dry season, and the governance changes that triggered re-scoring for 412 concessions between the 2024 and 2025 releases.

It is intended as a working reference, not a final verdict — every score in the index is paired with the underlying evidence chain in the Geometrack vault.

Authors
  • Rangga Pratama
    Lead Analyst
  • Sari Widodo
    Field Calibration
  • Dimas Hartono
    Data Engineering
Cite

Geometrack (2026). Concession Risk Index — Indonesia, 2025 release. Geometrack Research.

Key figures.

3,184
Concessions covered

across 17 Indonesian provinces

412
Re-scored since 2024

13% of the active base

287
High-exposure cluster

flagged for buyer-side review

46
Field calibration sites

ground-truthed during 2024

Contents
  • 01Introduction and scope
    p. 4
  • 02The six-factor model
    p. 9
  • 03Data sources and lineage
    p. 16
  • 04Field calibration: Kalimantan & Sumatra
    p. 24
  • 05Re-scoring between 2024 and 2025
    p. 32
  • 06How to read a concession score
    p. 39
  • 07Limitations and open questions
    p. 44
Methodology

Scores combine satellite-derived land cover change, parsed corporate filings across four Southeast Asian jurisdictions, public and private grievance dossiers, and a structured recovery framework applied to each suspended supplier. Every factor is documented with its source, refresh cadence, and known blind spots. The full data lineage for each concession is accessible through the Geometrack platform under the same identifier used in this report.

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